The Triumphant Red Sox Blog

With rosters expanding on Thursday, baseball's likely playoff contenders are scrambling to make waiver deals for players they want on their rosters for the postseason. Here are a couple moves, rumored and actual, plus a few other notable notes.

• Yankees Sign Bellhorn
  This was a rumor until just this afternoon, until which time the A's were also reportedly planning to pick him up. For the second time in a month, New York picked up a Red Sox castoff. Unlike Alan Embree, his erstwhile and again teammate, Bellhorn has been not only underachieving in 2005 but also hurt. His numbers in a AAA rehab assignment were even worse than they were before he went on the DL. What makes Brian Cashman think he'll suddenly come alive now?

• Craig Hansen's Tired Arm
  I have yet to see this online, but it's been all over WEEI today. Newly drafted pitcher Hansen, who didn't pitch between his May appearance in the College World Series and signing with Boston in July, is being shut down for a week or so. If I were a member of the Sox medical staff, I'd be very curious about how something like this could happen to someone so young. In other bad news, Jon Papelbon is reportedly a bit fatigued as well.

• Boomer Bucking for a Big Fine
  The Sox brass was quick to distance themselves from comments made by pitcher David Wells, who evidently would like to send part with some cash to go along with the six days in uniform a recent argument with an umpire cost him. Between calling commissioner Bud Selig an "idiot" (which, in my opinion, he is, but I can say that without fear of retaliation), he also caused several people to gag when he predicted that pretty soon, MLB won't let the players pick their noses any more.

• Foulke Almost Back
  That stillness in the air is the result of millions of Red Sox fans holding their collective breath. After a horrible first half, knee surgery, and a rehab period that included appearances at single-A Lowell, closer Keith Foulke is due back on Thursday. Hopes, if not expectations, are high for his success down the stretch.

• Kevin Youkilis for Steve Trachsel
  A horrible deal if ever I saw one. Trachsel is 34 years old and coming off back surgery that has limited him to a whopping 8 innings this season. Youkilis is 26 years old, healthy, and major league ready as soon as third base opens up. The Sox would be foolish to give up on a solid infielder of the future for the gamble that is Trachsel. The Mets, on the other hand, don't want to lose a potential postseason contributor. Granted, the chances that the Red Sox will make the playoffs are better than the Mets' chances, but after all the money Omar Minaya has sunk into his team this season, I doubt he's ready to give up just yet.

• Looking toward November
  Speaking of future plans, the unspoken presumption is that Bill Mueller is probably not going to be on this team next year. It isn't that he isn't valuable or that the Sox wouldn't like to keep him. The question is how much they're willing to pay and for how long. The career year of 2003 isn't enough to jack up his future value, and his history of bad knees makes a long-term deal unlikely. Time will tell how much distance there is between what Mueller wants and what the Red Sox will give ... This is based on nothing but a feeling, but I wouldn't be surprised if Theo pulls a Derek Lowe on Kevin Millar this winter; i.e., Thanks for everything, and good luck wherever you end up. As valuable as Millar has been in the clubhouse, he just isn't getting it done in the field or at the plate. While John Olerud certainly isn't a long-term answer, Roberto Petagine might be able to hold down the fort if the team can't land a starting first baseman by spring training ... With AA Portland prepping for September playoffs over in the Eastern League, their manager can't be too happy with the prospect of some of his finest being called up when major league rosters expand ... Congratulations to Pawtucket's Kelly Shoppach, named as catcher to the International League's postseason all-star team for the second consecutive year.

Even a broken clock shows the right time twice a day, and even the Kansas City Royals win an occasional ball game. So it isn't a disaster that KC beat the Sox last night in 11 innings. What is of more concern, however, is the overall picture of the last ten games.

After a one-month run during which the team won 71% of their games, Boston is playing at a much less torrid .500 pace over their last 10. Granted, that stretch included a split four-game series with the AL West-leading Angels, but the other three losses came against the Central's dregs, the Tigers and Royals. The net result is a slight narrowing of the division lead over the Yankees, who are now 3.5 games back with 38 games left to play.

Does this not-quite-slump suggest that problems are imminent? Not really, if the rest of the season is any indication. A breakdown of the remaining games, projecting wins based on records so far against the remaining opponents, is as good an indicator as any of what we can expect. For Boston, it looks like this:

Opponent	. . .	Record to date	. . .	Games Left	. . .	Projected result
Kansas City	. . .	.800 (4-1)	. . .	1 away	. . .	1-0
Detroit	. . .	.571 (4-3)	. . .	3 home	. . .	2-1
Tampa Bay	. . .	.667 (8-4)	. . .	3 away, 4 home	. . .	5-2
Baltimore	. . .	.417 (5-7)	. . .	3 away, 3 home	. . .	2-4
Chicago	. . .	.667 (4-2)	. . .	1 home	. . .	1-0
Los Angeles	. . .	.571 (4-3)	. . .	3 home	. . .	2-1
New York	. . .	.462 (6-7)	. . .	3 away, 4 home	. . .	3-4
Toronto	. . .	.273 (3-8)	. . .	3 away, 3 home	. . .	2-4
Oakland	. . .	.667 (4-2)	. . .	4 home	. . .	3-1

That gives them a total of 93 wins at the end of the season. Meanwhile, the Yankees' projection looks this way:

Opponent	. . .	Record to date	. . .	Games Left	. . .	Projected result
Toronto	. . .	.636 (7-4)	. . .	1 home	. . .	1-0
Kansas City	. . .	.000 (0-3)	. . .	3 home	. . .	0-3
Seattle	. . .	.833 (5-1)	. . .	4 away	. . .	3-1
Oakland	. . .	.833 (5-1)	. . .	3 away	. . .	2-1
Tampa Bay	. . .	.308 (4-9)	. . .	3 away, 3 home	. . .	2-4
Boston	. . .	.538 (7-6)	. . .	4 away, 3 home	. . .	4-3
Toronto	. . .	.636 (7-4)	. . .	3 away, 3 home	. . .	4-2
Baltimore	. . .	.400 (4-6)	. . .	4 away, 3 home	. . .	3-4

That gives New York a total of 88 wins at the end of the season—and places them 5 games behind the Red Sox for the division title.

The projections appear to favor Boston, even without considering the disparity between home and away schedules and Boston's superiority at home. It's especially true when you consider that the Sox have played much more consistently in 2005 (.519 in their worst month, July) than the Yankees have (under .500 in both April and June), indicating that the Sox are less likely to have a major meltdown in the next 5 1/2 weeks.

Nothing is certain, however, and there is some reason for caution. Curt Schilling, only marginally better in August than he was in April before going on the DL, is a question mark as he rejoins the starting rotation tonight. Keith Foulke, a disaster as closer before finally having knee surgery before the All-Star break, is working up to resuming his former role. Manny Ramirez still isn't hitting for average like he has in the past, and while his homer numbers look good, it's generally dangerous to expect homers to carry you through the postseason. The defensive picture has improved with John Olerud's ascension to the starting first baseman's role, but his age and injury history suggests he may not be able to sustain a high level of play for up to another two months.

None of which feels as daunting at this moment as what this team has already been through this year. With guys like Schilling, Foulke, and Wade Miller disabled at one point or another, plus Matt Clement's frightening head injury, the pitching staff has faced its share of adversity. Edgar Renteria, Kevin Millar, and the recently designated Mark Bellhorn have failed to live up to their varying levels of past performance, though Renteria has managed to stabilize his offensive production. And the trade deadline didn't bring the anticipated knight in shining armor, though Tony Graffanino has been a welcome addition and fit right in almost immediately. All things considered, it's pretty amazing that this team is in first place.

The 2005 Red Sox have turned out to be like the 2004 team in one important respect: the whole is much greater than the sum of the parts. That's what turns a good team into a potentially great team. We'll see down the stretch whether this team can again realize that potential.

I was so upset by the end of last night's Sox-Tigers game that I posted on a private message board, "Curt Schilling must die." Keep in mind that I am not prone to hysterics and I almost never get personally down on a player, but at the time I just felt as if I had had it with Curt's attempts to be a closer. He's been horrible, I though to myself, and something has to give.

Today, with a cooler head, I decided to look up the numbers and assess the situation a bit more dispassionately. What I found surprised me. For one thing, his ERA out of the bullpen is 5.01—not anything to write home about, but far from the 9 or 10 I thought it would be. In fact, with just a few exceptions, Curt has done a pretty good job pitching in relief since he came off the disabled list after the All-Star break. I present for the reader's examination the following numbers:

• In 19 appearances and 23 1/3 innings, he has thrown 14.8 pitches per inning.
• He has 9 saves, 3 losses, and 2 wins in which he didn't blow a save first.
• He has given up 0 hits in 8 games and 1 hit in 4 other games.
• He has given up 0 runs in 11 games and 1 run in 5 other games.
• He has given up 0 home runs in 15 games.
• He has issued 0 walks in 13 games.
• He has recorded at least 1 strikeout in 15 games
• Average hits per inning: 0.94.
• Average runs per inning: 0.56.
• Average walks per inning: 0.26.
• Average strikeouts per inning: 0.99.

Frankly, I thought the numbers would be much worse. They sure feel worse. But the fact is that Curt has really had only three horrible games: July 14 against the Yankees, August 12 against Chicago, and last night against Detroit. He's given up a home run in each of two other games, which is clearly a problem. His ERA is lousy for a closer but more than 3 runs better than what he did before going on the DL and more than a run better than Foulke. Overall, the numbers temper my displeasure somewhat.

For the time being, I can abide a hit every few games and the occasional walk. I can even deal with a solo homer now and again with a 3-run lead. Do I want him to be our closer after Labor Day and in the playoffs? Of course not. Would I prefer he not be the closer now? Absolutely. I maintain that Mike Timlin would be a better option, and if Keith Foulke can't come back strong, I would prefer to see Timlin close down the stretch. But last night aside, we could do worse than Curt.

So I have issued a stay of execution for our Mr. Schilling. But do us all a favor Curt: don't push your luck.

Having received a few e-mails from concerned readers wondering if I'm still alive, I thought I should pop in and make a quick post. I'm not dead, sick, or on vacation—just so busy at work that I'm practically comatose by the time I get home. But that doesn't mean I haven't been keeping up with the gentlemen of Yawkey Way. As a matter of fact, things have settled down just in time for me to go to tonight's and Sunday's games against the White Sox.

Tub o' Lard will start tonight for the Good Guys versus Mark Buehrle, a match-up that would seem to favor the Red Sox until you consider that a couple weeks ago, Buehrle got shelled by the Royals. Tomorrow will pit Tim Wakefield against Jon Garland, who did poorly against the Blue Jays two starts ago. Sunday's Matt Clement versus Orlando Hernandez contest is tough to call, especially considering El Duque's historically good numbers against us. In Boston's favor throughout the series is their offense, which is at or near the top of the American League in a slew of categories. The bottom line is that anything can happen and they still have to go out and play the game.

Some people are calling this series a preview of the ALCS. They shouldn't count their chickens before they're hatched. They White Sox have struggled this season against the Oakland A's, who may very well be Chicago's first round opponent. The Red Sox, by contrast, have a winning record against the AL West this year, except for a split against Seattle. With the Wild Card looking more and more likely to come from the West, those match-ups will be key because the two Sox teams will both have to get through West division teams in order to advance.

Meanwhile, I can't believe Joe Torre and Brian Cashman still have jobs...